The two foreign ministers who arrived in New Delhi this week represent countries the United States is either actively bombing or actively sanctioning. India invited both.
Iran’s Seyed Abbas Araghchi landed Tuesday. Russia’s Sergey Lavrov followed. The BRICS Foreign Ministers’ Meeting opens Thursday at Bharat Mandapam, chaired by S. Jaishankar. China’s Wang Yi isn’t coming — he’s in Beijing with Xi Jinping and Donald Trump, which tells you something about whose meeting Beijing thinks matters more.
What the BRICS Joint Statement Won’t Say
The bloc hasn’t issued a single joint statement on the Iran war since it began on February 28. April’s BRICS MENA meeting in Delhi was described as “very difficult” and produced nothing. The problem isn’t subtle: both Iran and the UAE are BRICS members. Iran attacked the UAE. Gulf states reportedly struck back. They’re expected to sit at the same table this week.
Iran wants the bloc to formally condemn US-Israeli strikes. India has already said BRICS is not anti-West and not anti-dollar. That gap is the meeting.
The Real Agenda Is at the Petrol Pump
India imports 85% of its crude. The Strait of Hormuz — 20% of global oil — has been effectively shut since March. Half of India’s March imports came from Russia. The US sanctions waiver on Russian oil expires this weekend.
India just declined Russia’s offer of sanctioned LNG. The rupee hit a record low of 95.17 on Sunday. Chabahar — India’s strategic port in Iran — may be handed back to Tehran. Aramco just announced a billion-barrel Hormuz loss and still made 25% more profit.
The men at Bharat Mandapam control more of India’s fuel supply than its own oil ministry does.
What Happens After the Cameras Leave
Marco Rubio arrives in Delhi on May 24 for the Quad Foreign Ministers’ Meeting. Ten days. That’s the gap between Jaishankar hosting two countries Washington is targeting and hosting Washington itself.
The BRICS joint statement, if there is one, will say nothing. The arithmetic — Russian oil waiver expiring May 18, Hormuz shut, rupee at 95, Rubio in 10 days — says everything.