The new PM hasn’t named an energy minister. The first decision deadline is 13 days away.
May 16. That’s when the US sanctions waiver letting India buy Russian crude expires. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has already said it: “We will not be renewing the general licence on Russian oil.” India imported 1.5 million barrels per day of Russian crude in March under that waiver. The supply line shuts on Day 14 of the new government — unless the PM signals otherwise.
That’s just the first crisis.
What Hormuz Already Took
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard has blockaded the Strait of Hormuz since February 28. The US added its own blockade of Iranian ports on April 13. India has lost roughly 3 million barrels a day of crude that used to transit the strait — and 60% of LPG imports came through it. The strategic reserve covers 30 days. After that, LPG queues lengthen and induction stoves sell out.
The outgoing government activated Operation Sankalp and rushed alternative supply. The new PM inherits the queues, the convoys, and the question: how long can India absorb $100+ oil before the rupee breaks?
The Qatar Hole
Iranian strikes on Ras Laffan in early March took 17% of Qatar’s LNG capacity offline. Qatar supplies 45% of India’s LNG and 20% of its LPG — its single largest source for both fuels. India’s LNG imports from Qatar fell from roughly 40% to 3.6% in March alone. Iran blew a 3-5 year hole in India’s gas supply, and the alternatives — US Sabine Pass, Australian LNG — cost more in freight than the gas itself.
Qatar has publicly committed to “reliable” flows for India. That’s a diplomatic promise, not a tanker.
Three Decisions, One Signal
Renew Russian crude after May 16: independence from US pressure, energy security first, Moscow stays close. Pivot to US and Saudi suppliers: alignment with Washington, higher costs accepted as the price of the bet. Accept temporary scarcity and accelerate renewables: a structural break from chokepoint dependence — but the rupee and the kitchen pay first.
The cabinet isn’t sworn in. The Treasury clock is.