Amin Nasser said the world has lost approximately 1 billion barrels of oil in two months. Then his company reported a 25% profit jump.
The Saudi Aramco CEO’s Sunday statement landed alongside Aramco’s Q1 numbers: $32.5 billion in net profit, beating the LSEG consensus of $30.95 billion. The same crisis Nasser warned would slow oil market recovery — even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens tomorrow — is the one making Aramco richer in real time.
The company isn’t hiding it. Aramco declared a $21.9 billion Q1 dividend, with $87.6 billion projected for the full year. Shell’s CEO independently flagged the same 1 billion barrel shortfall this week. Two of the world’s biggest oil companies agree on the math. Neither is signaling relief.
How Aramco Bypassed the Hormuz Disruption
Aramco didn’t just survive the Hormuz disruption. It bypassed it.
The East-West Crude Oil Pipeline — built in the 1980s as a strategic Hormuz workaround during the Iran-Iraq war — is now pumping at maximum capacity: 7 million barrels per day, from Saudi Arabia’s eastern fields to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. Aramco’s exports kept flowing while everyone else’s didn’t. Higher prices on rerouted crude did the rest.
That’s the part the rest of the oil-importing world didn’t have a backup plan for.
What the Oil Supply Shock Means for India
India imports nearly 89% of its crude, and over 54% of it comes from West Asia. State-run oil marketing companies have absorbed more than Rs 1 lakh crore in losses over 10 weeks to keep petrol pumps quiet. The four-year price freeze is cracking — premium fuel variants have already been hiked.
On Sunday, PM Modi asked citizens to conserve fuel and revive work-from-home. LPG consumption fell 16.2% in April. Barclays now sees Brent averaging $100 a barrel through 2026. The ADB warns India’s GDP growth could slow to 6.3%.
Aramco made $32.5 billion in three months. Indian OMCs lost over $12 billion in ten weeks. The Hormuz crisis didn’t create that gap. It just made it impossible to ignore who was always going to pay.