Brent crude fell to $91 last week. Half of Gujarat’s ceramic factories are still shut.
That’s the gap between what markets think happened and what India actually went through. The Strait of Hormuz crisis began February 28. A month in, the panic phase is over — and the adaptation phase is revealing what India’s energy economy really is. Araghchi and Lavrov arrive in Delhi for BRICS talks this week — the foreign ministers of Iran and Russia, the two countries whose energy supplies kept India’s adaptation possible. Aramco says 1 billion barrels are gone from world supply. What the new PM’s first energy move revealed. Now ₹3 per litre fuel price hike — the first increase in four years — has arrived at the pump.
What Actually Adapted
Households got first claim. The government scaled domestic LPG output by 36%, tilted allocation toward kitchens over factories, and locked in a 30-day Russian crude waiver. By late March, Iran’s exemption for friendly nations allowed India to transit Hormuz; but vessel traffic stayed at three ships a day versus the usual 120.
The math didn’t get better. The rationing got smarter.
What Broke and Stayed Broken
In Morbi, up to 550 of 670 ceramic factories halted by mid-March. A ₹750 billion industry idled while restaurants quietly pulled samosas and butter buns from menus. HSBC’s PMI dropped to its lowest reading since October 2022 — soft demand colliding with energy costs.
Most of those factories haven’t fully restarted.
Why $91 Oil Is Misleading
When Iran signalled a ceasefire on April 18, Brent collapsed from $100+ to $90.38. Markets called it over. Reality didn’t — the US blockade of Iranian ports kicked in April 13, and the dual waiver expiry happened the same week. India’s two cheapest energy sources ended just as futures markets relaxed.
The Reserve Asymmetry Nobody Fixed
India holds roughly 30 days of strategic oil reserves. China holds 300, a gap that is India’s structural exposure. Every other major Asian buyer rode out the shock on a cushion India never built.
A month of crisis didn’t change that ratio. It just made the asymmetry visible to anyone watching.
What’s Permanently Different
Domestic refining is running flat-out. Insurance on Hormuz-bound shipping has repriced. The diversification away from Persian Gulf supply — long discussed, rarely executed — is finally moving to support 30 crore piped gas connections, because the alternative is industrial paralysis. Aviation didn’t adapt — Air India’s $2.8 billion loss — its worst since the Tata takeover proved that some sectors have no hedge against a war they didn’t start.
The headlines moved on because oil fell. India didn’t get that option. Modi’s seven austerity appeals — skip gold, work from home, cut fuel — acknowledged the crisis was real without fixing the structural leak. The next geopolitical shock will hit the same vulnerabilities. Except now everyone knows where they are — and Modi’s simultaneous bets on Russia, Iran, and the Gulf will shape how India responds.