For the first time in seven years, India is buying oil from Iran, gas from Russia, and signing $13 billion in deals with Gulf monarchies — all at once. Monday’s vote count decides which one stops.
The Iran-Israel war that began on February 28 pushed India’s crude basket from $69 to $113 a barrel in a single month. The Strait of Hormuz — through which roughly half of India’s oil and most of its LPG passes — stopped being a shipping lane and became a question. The Modi government’s answer was to say yes to everyone: Russian oil through Arctic routes, an Iranian “humanitarian window” for 500,000 tonnes of LPG, $3 billion in UAE LNG, and $10 billion in green hydrogen with Abu Dhabi and Riyadh.
That answer has a deadline. It’s called Monday.
Why Russia Became the ‘Reliable’ Supplier
Russia now ships ~35% of India’s oil — top supplier, by a distance. It got there not through politics but geography: its tankers reach Indian ports via Arctic shipping and overland corridors that skip Hormuz entirely. The US sanctions waiver was extended — barely — to May 16. That’s twelve days after vote counting ends.
A coalition government inherits that deadline with no negotiating leverage. A clear mandate gets to push back. The waiver is the easy part. The next one isn’t being negotiated yet.
The Iranian Door That Just Cracked Open
India hadn’t bought Iranian energy since 2019. It just did — framed as humanitarian to keep Washington’s inspectors quiet, big enough to avert a fertiliser crunch. The $22 billion 2005 LNG agreement Washington once strangled is suddenly back on the table.
A US-aligned coalition won’t reach for it. A confident government might. NSA Doval’s Abu Dhabi visit last week is the hedge for the second outcome.
What Monday Actually Decides
Cheap Russian oil and Iranian gas mean lower pump prices but riskier alliances. Diversified Gulf supply means cleaner geopolitics and a steeper petrol bill — analysts are already pencilling in a 28-rupee-per-litre jump once counting ends.
The Modi government picked all three suppliers because elections were coming. Monday is when that bet becomes someone else’s to keep — or to fold.