The government already gave up ₹1 lakh crore to keep petrol cheap. It wasn’t enough.
On Monday morning, India’s three state-run oil retailers raised petrol by ₹2.61 and diesel by ₹2.71 — the fourth hike in 10 days. Petrol crossed ₹102 in Delhi. ₹111 in Mumbai. ₹115.69 in Hyderabad. Cumulative damage: ₹7.50 a litre, the sharpest fuel cycle since the first ₹3 hike on May 15.
And the oil companies are still losing money.
The ₹600 Crore That Won’t Go Away
Before this round, IOC, BPCL and HPCL — who control 90% of India’s fuel retail — were bleeding ₹1,000 crore a day. Petroleum Minister Hardeep Puri said it out loud on May 13: under-recoveries of over ₹1 lakh crore in 10 weeks.
Four hikes later, the bleeding has slowed to ₹600 crore a day. Slowed. Not stopped.
Brent jumped from $65 to $115 a barrel after the Strait of Hormuz closed in March. Aramco made 25% more profit while 1 billion barrels vanished from supply — the other side of this equation. India imports 85% of its oil, and both cheap oil waivers expired in the same week. Every dollar of crude eventually shows up at the pump — except this time, the OMCs swallowed the gap for 78 days while state elections were on.
Then elections ended. The hikes started.
What the Excise Cut Already Cost
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman confirmed on Monday that the excise duty cuts will cost the government over ₹1 lakh crore in FY27 revenue. ₹14,000 crore is already gone. She called it shielding consumers from a global shock.
It shielded them for 78 days. Then it didn’t.
Who’s Left Holding the Bill
Government: ₹1 lakh crore in revenue, gone. OMCs: ₹600 crore a day, still bleeding. Consumers: ₹300-800 more a month on commute, plus the food inflation diesel trucks deliver to every kirana shop in the country.
The only exit is the US-Iran deal reopening Hormuz. Crude fell 6% on Monday on hopes it might. India has no other lever — beyond a $500 billion commitment to buy American goods that ties fuel costs to broader US-India economic pressure. After eight years of energy diplomacy and Modi’s appeal to skip gold and conserve fuel, fuel security still hinges on whether two foreign capitals can agree on a ceasefire.
The next hike is one bad headline from Washington away.