Sergio Gor said the deal was “99% done.” He said it would be signed “within weeks.” He didn’t say what was in the last 1%.
The US ambassador’s optimism — delivered on May 29 at IIT Delhi — frames the four-day negotiations that begin today in New Delhi. Brendan Lynch, the US chief negotiator, sits across from Darpan Jain, India’s Additional Secretary in the Department of Commerce. Their job: close out the interim trade pact whose framework was announced in February, when US tariffs on Indian goods dropped from 25% to 18%.
The first 99% is real. The last 1% might not be small.
The $500 Billion India Hasn’t Confirmed
Marco Rubio said India had committed to buying $500 billion in American goods over five years. New Delhi has not publicly confirmed that $500 billion commitment. India currently imports about $45-50 billion in US goods annually. To hit Rubio’s target, that has to roughly double — every year, for five years — without breaking a foreign reserve already bleeding from the oil import bill. Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal says there’s “no difficulty.” The arithmetic disagrees.
The Tariff Cuts Don’t Have a Legal Floor
In February, the US Supreme Court struck down the IEEPA-based reciprocal tariff authority Washington used to pressure India in the first place. The 18% figure India got was negotiated under a framework that no longer fully exists. Both sides have to rebuild the tariff structure on firmer legal ground — which means India can push back harder, but also has less certainty about what survives the rewrite. Wheat, rice, poultry and milk stayed off the table in February. Section 301 investigations India formally rejected in April are still on it.
The Iran War Made the Math Worse
When the February framework was signed, oil was cheaper and the rupee was stronger. Today the rupee sits at 95 against the dollar. PM Modi has asked Indians to skip gold and work from home to ease forex pressure. A $500 billion American shopping commitment lands very differently in this economy than in the one Rubio described.
The deal is 99% done. The four days starting today are about the 1% that decides whether the 99% holds.