The US Supreme Court tariff ruling reshaped India’s 10 percent trade deal impact for June 2026 and beyond: India spent six months negotiating its US tariff rate down from 25% to 18%, then the Court made all of it free.
On February 20, the Court ruled 6-3 in Learning Resources v. Trump that IEEPA — the Cold War statute Trump used for his Liberation Day tariffs — never authorized any of it. The 18% rate India bargained for was built on a legal foundation the Court demolished. Eighteen days after the framework deal was signed.
The math gets worse from there.
What India Actually Paid
The February 2 framework was expensive. India agreed to wind down Russian oil. It signaled a $500 billion US purchase commitment it has never publicly confirmed. Agricultural market opening entered the conversation. All for the right to be taxed at 18% instead of 25%.
Trump tariffs were struck down by the Supreme Court, and a temporary 10 percent replaced them for India and everyone else. The day after the ruling, Trump imposed a blanket 10% global tariff under Section 122 — no negotiation required. Bangladesh got 10%. Vietnam got 10%. India got 10%, after surrendering levers it spent years building. GTRI, the trade research outfit, urged Delhi to reassess. Delhi kept negotiating.
India reassesses its trade deal after the US Supreme Court tariff ruling — but it is negotiating on quicksand.
The ‘Temporary’ That Decides Everything
Section 122 has a 150-day statutory limit and a 15% cap. When it expires, nobody knows what replaces it. A textile exporter in Tiruppur cannot price a three-year contract on an executive order that may not survive the summer.
A second tariff is loading on a parallel track. On June 3 — the same week chief negotiators wrapped four days of talks in Delhi — the USTR proposed a 12.5% forced-labour tariff under Section 301. Public hearings: July 7. For Indian exporters, the US tariff Supreme Court ruling’s impact spreads across IT, textiles, and more: stack the 12.5% on the 10% and the rate hits 22.5%. The “lower tariff” win evaporates.
US Ambassador Sergio Gor called the bilateral deal “99% done”. The Court already decided the last 1% was the only part that mattered.