India has no strategic gas reserves. Not a three-month buffer. Not a one-month buffer. About two weeks of working inventory at regasification terminals — and the country that supplies half of it just took a missile strike that won’t be fixed this decade.
Iranian missiles hit Qatar’s Ras Laffan Industrial City on March 18, damaging two of 14 LNG trains and one gas-to-liquids facility. QatarEnergy CEO Saad al-Kaabi confirmed the damage: 17% of Qatar’s LNG export capacity — 12.8 million tonnes per annum — gone for 3-5 years. That’s not a disruption. That’s a structural amputation.
Qatar supplies 20% of the world’s LNG. European and Asian gas prices surged nearly 50% within hours, with the rupee hitting record lows against the dollar compounding the import cost shock. But nowhere is the damage more concentrated than India.
Half of India’s LNG — Through One Chokepoint
India gets roughly 47% of its LNG imports from Qatar. Petronet LNG holds a 7.5 million-tonne-per-year contract with QatarEnergy. GAIL has another 1 mtpa. Both companies’ shares fell up to 4% on March 19.
Worse: about 50-55% of India’s LNG imports pass through the Strait of Hormuz — now an active conflict zone with Indian Navy warships escorting LPG tankers through hostile waters. The supply is damaged AND the shipping lane is threatened.
That’s not a supply chain problem. It’s a dependency trap — and the squeeze has already started.
What’s Breaking Right Now
Industrial customers are facing 20% supply cuts. The government is prioritising 15 million piped natural gas household connections and CNG vehicles, which means factories get rationed first. Some are already switching to fuel oil, LPG, or coal.
The fertiliser sector is the one to watch. India has started asking China for urea cargoes and is in talks with Russia, Belarus, and Morocco to shore up supply — all because gas-dependent fertiliser plants can’t run at capacity. Kharif planting season starts in weeks. If fertiliser prices spike, food prices follow.
India’s LPG market is already strained, with induction cooktops selling out as households scramble for alternatives. Power plants that burn gas may shift back to coal. The government’s target of raising natural gas in India’s energy mix from 6% to 15%? Shelved by a missile strike 3,000 kilometres away.
Two weeks of inventory. Half the supply from one country. Zero strategic reserves. The Ras Laffan crater isn’t just Qatar’s problem — it’s a five-year stress test for every Indian kitchen, factory, and filling station that runs on gas.