India imports 85% of its crude oil. The strait that carried much of it has been shut for three weeks. On Saturday, the Prime Minister gathered India’s top security officials to answer one question: how long can we hold?
The Numbers on the Table
PM Modi chaired a Cabinet Committee on Security meeting on March 22 with Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, Home Minister Amit Shah, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, and EAM S Jaishankar. The agenda covered every energy input the country runs on: crude oil, LPG, power, and fertiliser.
The oil picture isn’t dire — yet. India’s non-Hormuz crude sourcing has climbed to 70% of total imports. Strategic petroleum reserves cover roughly 74 days of consumption across ISPRL caverns and commercial stocks. A US waiver lets India buy Russian oil until April 4.
Oil is survivable. The real crisis is everything that runs on gas.
Where the Plan Breaks Down
Since the Strait of Hormuz shut on February 28, LNG supplies have cratered. Iran’s strike on Qatar’s Ras Laffan facility destroyed 17% of LNG capacity. India is facing its worst cooking gas shortage in decades — households are burning firewood again, induction stoves have sold out, and restaurants are rationing supply.
The downstream hit goes beyond kitchens. Urea production — which depends on natural gas — has dropped to 50% capacity. Kharif sowing starts in weeks. If fertiliser supplies don’t recover, food prices follow fuel prices up.
The CCS reviewed contingency measures: additional LPG cargoes from the US, Norway, Canada, and Russia. Fertiliser outreach to Russia and Jordan. An extra 20% commercial LPG allocation nationwide. Navy warships have been escorting LPG tankers through the strait. The IEA’s coordinated release of 400 million barrels — the largest emergency draw in history — adds some global breathing room.
But 74 days isn’t 740. Brent crude has already hit $126 a barrel, and the rupee has already hit record lows against the dollar. The US waiver expires April 4. And the Strait of Hormuz shows no sign of reopening.
India isn’t out of energy. It’s running out of margin.