A petrol and diesel price hike of ₹25-28 per litre could hit after elections end on April 29, according to Kotak Institutional Equities. Diesel sells for roughly ₹87 at the pump — oil companies lose ₹100 on every litre. The loss is larger than the price.
The Kotak note warns that petrol and diesel prices could rise ₹25-28 per litre once state elections wrap up. West Bengal’s final phase votes April 29. Results land May 4. The arithmetic is blunt: Brent crude is above $104 a barrel, up 59% year-on-year, and Indian pump prices haven’t moved since May 2022. Both cheap oil sources evaporated in the same week — the US let Russian and Iranian import waivers expire simultaneously. Nearly four years of frozen rates while crude nearly doubled.
The Ministry of Petroleum called the report “mischievous,” “misleading,” and “designed to create fear and panic.” What it didn’t call it was wrong.
Why a ₹25-28 Petrol and Diesel Price Hike Is Inevitable
Indian Oil, Bharat Petroleum, and Hindustan Petroleum are haemorrhaging cash. The government itself confirmed the numbers to parliament: ₹20 per litre loss on petrol, ₹100 per litre on diesel. In March, Delhi slashed excise duty by ₹10 on both fuels — petrol duty dropped to ₹3, diesel duty to zero. There is nothing left to cut.
Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz — through which 20% of the world’s oil transits — remains blocked after Iran seized two container ships on April 22. Iranian oil tankers anchored off Indian ports, unable to discharge cargo already purchased. Crude keeps climbing. OMCs have resorted to buying discounted diesel from refiners just to stay afloat.
None of that changes what you pay at the pump. Not during elections.
Who Pays After the Elections
If petrol jumps ₹25 from Delhi’s current ₹94.77, you’re looking at ₹120 a litre. A car owner burning 30 litres a month pays ₹750 more. But the real hit is diesel — it moves every truck, tractor, and cold chain in the country. A ₹25 diesel price hike doesn’t stay at the pump. It shows up in your grocery bill within weeks.
The government’s denial is a holding pattern — it has to be while four states are voting. But OMCs can’t absorb ₹100-a-litre losses indefinitely, excise duty on diesel is already zero, and Brent crude doesn’t check India’s election calendar.
After April 29, somebody pays. The only question is whether it’s you at the pump or the treasury bailing out three oil companies whose losses now exceed their revenue per litre.