India’s Russian oil imports decline in 2026 wasn’t an accident. The country spent three months cutting Russian crude to win a US trade deal. Then the Strait of Hormuz closed — and Washington asked India to buy Russian oil again.
The Decline in Russian Oil Imports
India’s crude imports from Russia fell over 40% in January 2026, hitting a 44-month low. Russia’s share of India’s oil imports dropped from over 40% at its peak to just 20% by February. Saudi Arabia filled the gap — imports from Riyadh hit a record 1.05 million barrels per day.
The reason wasn’t energy strategy. It was diplomacy. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent hinted at dropping the additional 25% tariffs on India — if Russian oil kept falling. India’s refiners got the message. Reliance Industries drew a complete blank on Russian crude in January.
That arithmetic worked — until the Middle East caught fire.
The Reversal
The Strait of Hormuz carries 20% of global oil supply. When the US-Israel-Iran conflict choked it shut, those record Saudi imports suddenly had nowhere to flow. India’s 25 days of crude reserves started looking less like a buffer and more like a countdown.
Russia saw the opening. Moscow positioned 9.5 million barrels of crude in vessels near Indian waters — ready to arrive within weeks via routes that bypass Hormuz entirely. And the US, which had spent months pressuring India to cut Russian purchases, granted a 30-day waiver allowing India to buy from those very tankers.
The same oil that was politically toxic in January became strategically essential by March.
What It Means for You
The rupee is already at record lows. Oil past $101 is pushing up everything from petrol to cooking gas. India importing Russian crude won’t fix prices overnight — but it keeps the lights on while Hormuz stays shut.
India played by Washington’s rules, gave up the cheapest oil on the market, and got a 30-day waiver in return. The trade deal it was chasing? Still stuck. The Russian oil it walked away from? Already floating off its coast, waiting.