India’s 2026 fertilizer shortage is accelerating into a full-blown crisis. The country imports half its urea and DAP from the Middle East — and as of three weeks ago, that supply route doesn’t exist.
The Strait of Hormuz — the 21-nautical-mile bottleneck that handles a third of the world’s seaborne fertilizer trade — has been effectively closed to commercial shipping since Iran began mining it on March 1. LNG shipments through the strait have collapsed by 97%. Global urea prices have surged 30%. And Kharif season, which produces roughly half of India’s annual foodgrain, starts in ten weeks.
That’s the first cut. There are two more.
Why the Fertilizer Shortage Is Getting Worse
Yara International, one of India’s largest fertilizer producers, announced production cuts at its Indian facilities on March 18. The reason: Qatari LNG — the feedstock for domestic urea plants — can’t get through Hormuz either. So even fertilizer made in India is running short of raw material.
The natural fallback would be China, the world’s largest fertilizer exporter. India formally requested emergency urea supplies on March 12. Two days ago, China tightened its export restrictions to protect domestic markets.
Three supply lines. All three compromised simultaneously. That hasn’t happened before — and it’s created an unprecedented urea supply crisis for India’s kharif season.
What the Government Says vs. What the Government Does
The Department of Fertilizers called stocks “robust and secure” on March 6. The same week, India launched emergency talks with Russia, Belarus, and Morocco for alternative supplies. Parliament warned of potential Kharif shortages on March 14.
You don’t scramble for backup suppliers across three continents when stocks are secure.
The 10-Week Countdown
Farmers stock up on fertilizers in April and May. Kharif planting — rice, cotton, soybeans, pulses — begins in June. The ₹1.7 lakh crore fertilizer subsidy budgeted for FY 2026-27 means nothing if the physical supply isn’t there to subsidize.
India feeds 1.4 billion people. Forty-four percent of global urea exports are blocked. The LNG crisis is already pushing cooking gas prices up. With fertilizer imports from Hormuz disrupted and China restricting exports, India’s food security hinges on finding alternative supply in the next ten weeks.
The window to get fertilizer to 140 million farming households before planting season isn’t measured in months — it’s measured in weeks that are already ticking down.