Foreign direct investment into India rose 15% this fiscal year. Net FDI fell 24%.
Both numbers are true. Only one tells you what’s actually happening.
RBI data released today confirms January 2026 was the sixth consecutive month of negative net FDI — $1.39 billion more left India than entered it, nearly triple December’s outflow. Gross inflows hit an 11-month low of $5.67 billion. But repatriations — foreign investors cashing out and sending money home — surged to $4.92 billion, almost double the $2.49 billion repatriated in January 2025.
The headline number says India is attracting more investment. The net number says that investment isn’t staying.
Where the Money Is Going
Since April 2025, foreign investors have repatriated $49.52 billion from India — up 6% year-on-year. Meanwhile, Indian companies sent $28.14 billion abroad, a 37% jump, with three-quarters flowing to the US, Singapore, UK, and UAE.
Add FPI outflows — $3.24 billion in January alone, $11.82 billion in FPI outflows so far in March — and the picture sharpens. Capital is leaving India through every available door. The rupee’s slide past 93 per dollar is the receipt.
But the government’s explanation doesn’t match the scale.
The Gap Between ‘Fine’ and the Numbers
Finance Minister Sitharaman said in February that the outflows stem from geopolitics, not economic weakness: “They’re not reasons based on the economy and its strength.” The government eased FDI rules for China in March and raised the insurance FDI cap to 100% in the 2026 budget.
Those are structural fixes for a problem the FM says doesn’t exist structurally. A panel was set up in February to investigate. Manufacturing and tech still draw healthy inflows — this isn’t a blanket retreat. But when $79 billion arrives and only $1.66 billion stays net, the question isn’t whether India attracts capital.
It’s whether India can keep it.