Two good monsoons in a row made India forget what a bad one feels like. IMD just reminded everyone.
On April 13, the India Meteorological Department issued its first long-range forecast for 2026: rainfall at 92% of the long-period average — the lowest first-stage estimate in 26 years. Private forecaster Skymet had already flagged the same thing a week earlier, pegging it at 94%. Both point to El Nino.
This is India’s first below-normal monsoon forecast in three years. The last one, in 2023, ended with a 6% rainfall deficit — and IMD had actually predicted normal that year.
The Problem Isn’t Just Rain
El Nino conditions are expected to emerge around June and persist through the monsoon season. Some models suggest this could become the strongest El Nino event in 140 years. Reduced Northern Hemisphere snow cover over the past three months is adding to the pressure.
But weak rain alone isn’t what makes this dangerous. Kharif sowing — which accounts for roughly 50% of India’s annual crop output — begins in six weeks. Farmers need fertiliser. And right now, fertiliser shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are stalled because of the Iran war. Current stocks cover the upcoming season, but barely.
Less rain. Less fertiliser. Pulses and oilseeds hit hardest. That’s your grocery bill rewritten by June.
What Could Go Right
Not everything points down. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole — which can partially offset El Nino — is expected toward the end of the monsoon season. India also enters this year with better irrigation coverage and buffer food stocks built up during two consecutive good years. And IMD’s second-stage forecast in late May could revise upward.
But here’s the number that should keep policymakers up: retail inflation already at 3.4% in March. A weak monsoon pushing food prices higher, layered on top of energy costs from the Hormuz crisis, gives the RBI almost no room to cut rates — right when the economy could use a boost.
India’s monsoon isn’t just weather. It’s a policy straitjacket that tightens every time the forecast drops below 100%.