For two decades, a fresh CS graduate from Hyderabad had the same H-1B odds as a senior architect at Google. That ended on April 1.
What Changed
DHS scrapped the random lottery and replaced it with a wage-weighted selection system. The math is simple and brutal: Level IV earners (top-tier salaries) now get four entries in the draw. Level III gets three. Level II gets two. Level I — where most entry-level Indian applicants land — gets one.
The result: Level IV selection probability jumped to 61.16%, up from the old flat rate of 29.59%. Level I dropped to 15.29%. Same visa, radically different odds — determined entirely by what your employer is willing to pay.
The first selections under this system completed on April 1, just as FY2027 petition filing opened.
Who Loses Most
Indian nationals receive roughly 70% of all H-1B visas. The wage-weighted system hits hardest at the entry level — exactly where Indian IT consulting firms place most of their workers. This comes amid growing H-1B visa opposition in US political circles. Add the new $100,000 per-visa fee, and the economics collapse. Moody’s estimates major Indian IT firms face $100–250 million in additional costs.
Recent US university graduates — overwhelmingly Level I or II — now face a double barrier: lower odds AND employers less willing to sponsor at higher cost.
The Pivot Is Already Happening
Indian IT firms aren’t fighting the system. They’re routing around it — and capital is leaving India through every available door. Big Tech added 32,000 jobs in India as H-1B rules tightened. TCS, Infosys, and HCLTech are pivoting hiring to local markets instead of absorbing the fee hike. The H-1B, once the default path for Indian tech talent reaching the US amid a shifting trade relationship, is becoming a senior-only ticket.
For entry-level Indian workers, the message from Washington is clear: the lottery that once gave everyone a fair shot now wants to see your salary first. The path to a US tech career didn’t close — but the door just got a lot narrower for anyone who hasn’t already made it through.