Tuesday, September 26, 2023

All eyes on Russia and Ukraine

Talks may finally succeed in defusing the crisis over Ukraine. Ukraine may choose not to join NATO for now.


Indications are that Putin would relent and may withdraw troops from Ukraine borders if Russia’s security concerns are addressed by the US and NATO.

There are ample indications that the crisis engendered by the amassing of Russian troops on Ukraine borders may finally defuse. US and several other NATO members have indicated that they may finally agree to not including Ukraine into NATO. This shows that they recognize Russia’s sensitivity towards likely NATO expansion in Eastern Europe encroaching into Russia’s sphere of influence.

The fact that US and NATO are considering conceding one of the most important concerns of President Vladimir Putin points to how the latter’s aggressiveness has finally paid off.

The crisis is not yet over. However, the dark clouds have started dissipating slowly and there are hopes that both NATO and US would finally reach a tacit understanding with Putin’s Russia.

The only possible solution to the crisis is Ukraine’s refusal to join NATO formally.

If Ukraine refuses to join NATO, it would alleviate Putin’s security concerns and this may give all sides a chance to thrash out a workable understanding about keeping away from one another’s spheres of influence.

It is good that both sides are engaging in talks and several rounds of talks have been held by the concerned heads of states.

India’s diplomatic stance is in a precarious situation for now as it would not like to antagonise any side. Russia remains a friend for us, while US and NATO are aligned with our long term interests. Besides, Ukraine’s invasion may have ramifications for Taiwan’s future too. China remains a concern for India. For now, it would be in India’s interests, if this crisis is resolved soon. The world and its economy, mauled by Covid impact, are not in a position to go through another upheaval.

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